# AFCON Predictions — References

## Data sources
- International Football Results (1872–2023) dataset (compiled by Kaggle user **martj42**): historical international match results used for Elo calibration.
- Player availability, travel distance, and rest days (news wires + team sites)

## Models & methods
- Elo rating methodology for football
- LightGBM documentation
- Monte Carlo simulation best practices for sporting events
- Isotonic calibration references

## Tooling & infra
- Streamlit docs (dashboard)
- SHAP docs (explainability)
- Airflow docs (orchestration)

## Articles / background
- Academic/industry writeups on tournament forecasting and Brier scoring